Introduction

The rise of China as a major global power is one of the defining geopolitical developments of the twenty-first century. While often analyzed primarily through the lens of military capability, China’s strategic identity is far more complex. With the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) at its center, it operates simultaneously as a nuclear-armed power, an economic engine, a technological innovator, and an increasingly influential diplomatic actor that employs a comprehensive suite of instruments of national power to achieve its goals. Its global reach extends across trade networks, infrastructure development, political partnerships, and security relationships, making it a multidimensional strategic competitor to the United States and the West.

Understanding China’s nuclear posture, therefore, requires situating it within this much broader strategic framework, rather than treating it as an isolated military phenomenon.

This paper examines China’s identity and behavior, including its efforts to be perceived as a strategic actor, emphasizing how its historical experiences and cultural traditions have shaped its contemporary approach to power. It also considers how China compares to Russia, particularly in relation to nuclear strategy, and it explores the implications for future global security dynamics.

David Santoro

President and CEO

Pacific Forum International

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL CONTEXT

CHINA TODAY AND TOMORROW: STRATEGIC IDENTITY, BEHAVIOUR AND FUTURE TRAJECTORIES

FOUNDATIONS FOR FUTURE

COMPARISON WITH RUSSIA

IMPLICATIONS FOR STRATEGIC NUCLEAR ISSUES

CONCLUSIONS

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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About the Author

DAVID SANTORO is the President and CEO of the Pacific Forum. He specializes in strategic and security issues with a regional focus on both Asia and Europe. Dr Santoro’s current interests focus on great-power dynamics, US alliances, and deterrence, particularly the role of China in an era of nuclear multipolarity. In 2021, Lynne Rienner published his volume on U.S.-China Nuclear Relations – The Impact of Strategic Triangles. Dr Santoro also leads several of the Forum’s track-1.5 and track-2 strategic dialogues. Before joining Pacific Forum, Santoro worked on similar issues in France, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the spring of 2010, Dr Santoro was also a visiting fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and, in 2010-2011, he was a Stanton nuclear security fellow at the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London.

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