Introduction

For years the United States and South Korea have urged the People’s Republic of China, as a treaty ally of North Korea and by far the biggest trading partner of Pyongyang, to play a more proactive role in urging reconciliation between the two Koreas. Beijing has repeatedly stated its opposition to a nuclear North Korea, urged more dialogue among the concerned parties, and at times backed penalties against Pyongyang for its proliferation, but also often declined to condemn specific North Korean behaviors Seoul and Washington object to and not signed on to sanctions it considers potentially destabilizing.

To gain a clearer insight into the PRC perspective on North Korea, Korean unification, and practical measures that may be implemented to foster unification, Pacific Forum surveyed 18 Chinese experts—based inside and out of China—on the Korean Peninsula and the PRC’s foreign policy priorities. The project, sponsored by the UniKorea Foundation in Seoul, revealed more of Chinese experts’ views of peninsular dynamics, the parties with the greatest fault/responsibility for the ongoing standoff, and whether specific potential actions would worsen or lessen tension on the peninsula.

요약

미국과 대한민국은 수년간 북한의 조약상 동맹국이자 최대 무역상대국인 중국이 남북 간 화해를 촉진하는 데에 있어 보다 적극적인 역할을 수행할 것을 촉구해 왔다. 중국은 북한의 핵무장에 대한 반대 입장을 반복적으로 표명하였으며, 관련 당사국들 간의 대화를 지속적으로 촉구하였고, 때로는 북한의 핵·미사일 확산에 근거한 국제 제재에 동참하기도 했다. 그러나 동시에 한국과 미국이 문제 삼았던 특정 북한의 행태를 규탄하기를 거부하는 경우가 잦았고, 잠재적으로 불안정을 초래할 수 있다고 판단한 제재에는 명시적으로 동참하지 않았다.

북한, 한반도 통일, 그리고 통일을 촉진하기 위한 실질적 조치에 대한 중국의 관점을 보다 명확히 파악하기 위해, 퍼시픽 포럼(Pacific Forum)은 한반도 및 중국의 대외정책 우선순위에 정통한 중국 전문가 18인(중국 내·외 거주)을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시하였다. 서울 소재 통일과나눔재단(UniKorea Foundation)의 후원으로 진행된 본 프로젝트는, 한반도 동학에 대한 중국 전문가들의 인식, 지속되는 대치 국면에 대해 가장 큰 과실 혹은 책임을 져야 할 당사자, 그리고 특정한 잠재적 조치들이 한반도 긴장을 고조시키는지 혹은 완화시키는지에 관한 평가를 보다 상세히 규명하였다.

執行摘要

多年來，美國與南韓持續呼籲中華人民共和國在推動南北韓關係改善方面發揮更為積極的作用。中國作為北韓的條約盟友，亦是其最主要的貿易夥伴。北京方面多次重申反對北韓擁有核武，並主張透過對話處理相關爭議；在特定情況下，中國亦曾支持針對北韓核擴散行為的制裁措施。然而，中國同時避免公開譴責部分為美國與南韓所反對的北韓具體行為，亦未支持其認為可能引發區域不穩定後果的制裁方案。

為更系統性地理解中國對北韓、朝鮮半島統一，以及潛在促統措施的看法，太平洋論壇就朝鮮半島議題與中國外交政策優先事項，調查了18位分布於中國境內外的中國學者。本研究由首爾的韓國統一基金會（UniKorea Foundation）提供支持，旨在呈現中國學界對半島局勢的主要判斷，包括其對當前僵局責任歸屬的看法，以及不同潛在政策行動可能對區域緊張態勢產生的影響。

本項目揭示了中國專家對半島局勢的多項判讀，包括認為哪一方對當前僵局負有最大責任，以及特定潛在行動究竟可能加劇抑或緩和半島緊張。

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

CHINESE VIEWS ON KOREAN UNIFICATION (ENGLISH)

한반도 통일에 대한 중국의 입장

中國對朝鮮半島統一的看法

About the Author

ROB YORK is Director for Regional Affairs at Pacific Forum. He is responsible for editing Pacific Forum publications, including the weekly PacNet series, the triannual Comparative Connections e-journal, and the indepth Issues & Insights series. He also oversees Pacific Forum fellowships and internship programs, as well as on
counter-disinformation and media training. Prior to joining Pacific Forum, Rob worked as a production editor at The South China Morning Post in Hong Kong. In 2023 he earned his Ph.D. in Korean history at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, where he previously received his master’s degree in Asian studies. Rob regularly contributes commentary on inter-Korean and Indo-Pacific affairs to NK News, The South China Morning Post, The American Conservative, China Review International, and The Journal of American-East Asian Relations, as well as conducting numerous interviews in various media outlets.

XIAOYI (YEE) ZE is a 2024-25 Nonresident Lloyd and Lilian Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum. Her research interests include international relations, East Asian culture and history, Chinese diaspora, and international development. She holds a PhD in Asian Studies from the University of British Columbia and a MA from the University of Hawaii at Manoa. Her PhD dissertation centers on East Asia international relations in the late nineteenth century, with the aim of leading to a better understanding of the dynamics of imperialism, diaspora, and the concept of international law. Xiaoyi also has diverse work experience in international organizations, including the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, Global Green Growth Institute, the United Nations Volunteer Programme, the East-West Center, and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.