The Pilot: Indo-Pacific Policy Briefs

Issues & Insights 26.8 – Strategic Asia and Strategic Europe: Nuclear Order, Stability and Deterrence in Comparative Perspective

Written By

  • David Santoro President & CEO, Pacific Forum

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Introduction

Regional nuclear orders function as distinct strategic ecosystems shaped by geography, historical experience, alliance patterns, and political relationships. Understanding how “Strategic Asia” differs from “Strategic Europe” is essential for evaluating contemporary stability risks, escalation pathways, and arms control prospects.

While both regions involve nuclear deterrence dynamics among major powers, their structural characteristics diverge in ways that produce fundamentally different security outcomes. Strategic Asia refers to the interconnected network of nuclear relationships among Asian nuclear-armed states and external actors operating in the region. Strategic Europe, by contrast, refers to the nuclear order historically centered on transatlantic alliances and the deterrence competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, and the evolving US-Russia relationship after the Cold War.

This paper focuses on what constitutes Strategic Asia, how it operates, and how its structure differs from Strategic Europe, particularly regarding deterrence stability, arms control, and institutional development. It argues that Strategic Asia is characterized by multipolar deterrence relationships, significant asymmetries, and relatively weak institutionalization, whereas Strategic Europe developed under bipolar rivalry and dense institutional frameworks. These structural differences generate distinct stability dynamics and create different opportunities—and constraints—for arms control and risk reduction.

David Santoro

President and CEO

Pacific Forum International

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

HISTORICAL EVOLUTION OF REGIONAL NUCLEAR ORDERS

DEFINING STRATEGIC ASIA: SCOPE, ACTORS AND RELATIONSHIPS

STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS OF REGIONAL NUCLEAR ORDERS

STRATEGIC DYNAMICS: HOW THE SYSTEMS OPERATE

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS: STRATEGIC ASIA VERSUS STRATEGIC EUROPE

IMPLICATIONS FOR ARMS CONTROL AND NONPROLIFERATION

RECOMMENDATIONS

CONCLUSION

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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About the Author

DAVID SANTORO is the President and CEO of the Pacific Forum. He specializes in strategic and security issues with a regional focus on both Asia and Europe. Dr Santoro’s current interests focus on great-power dynamics, US alliances, and deterrence, particularly the role of China in an era of nuclear multipolarity. In 2021, Lynne Rienner published his volume on U.S.-China Nuclear Relations – The Impact of Strategic Triangles. Dr Santoro also leads several of the Forum’s track-1.5 and track-2 strategic dialogues. Before joining Pacific Forum, Santoro worked on similar issues in France, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the spring of 2010, Dr Santoro was also a visiting fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and, in 2010-2011, he was a Stanton nuclear security fellow at the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London.

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