Introduction
Since the Obama administration began its “pivot” (or “rebalance”) in the early 2010s, there has been a tendency to contrast Europe, the older US foreign policy priority, with Asia, and specifically the People’s Republic of China as the newer, and more important theater. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and fears of additional aggression Moscow might commit if Ukraine were to fall, have shifted some attention back to Europe, but Russia remains a “no limits” partner of the PRC.
In reality, while the PRC’s growth—in economic, technological, and military terms—is the defining story of international relations in the 21st century, Europe remains a vital player as well. Though on opposite sides of Eurasia, Europe and China’s interactions continue, with Beijing continuing to desire Brussels as a partner but Europe’s view of the PRC generally remaining more guarded.
This volume explores complicated security dilemmas on both sides of Eurasia. In this lead paper for this volume, Pacific Forum Senior Adjunct Fellow William Alberque, the former director of NATO’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation Centre, interprets China’s “no first use” stance on nuclear weapons as a cynical branding maneuver designed to deflect criticism of its nuclear program, and warns that Beijing’s behavior is inconsistent with that of a country with a true NFU policy. RUSI Associate Fellow Dr. Sari Arho Havrén further notes, in her chapter, that the increased (and sometimes destructive) Chinese presence in the Baltic Sea means that the PRC and Russia pose a threat, not just to NATO, but the agency of smaller states. Elsewhere Martijn Cornelissen, nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum, advises that, as the US pressures EU countries like the Netherlands to diversify away from China in meeting their semiconductor needs, it behooves them to forge deeper relationships with the PRC’s Northeast Asian neighbors of Japan and South Korea.
The tech cooperation theme continues in the chapter by Nonresident Handa Fellow Joon Sung Lee, and his discussion of deepening US-East Asia semiconductor cooperation, as well as in Nonresident Vasey Fellow Oorja Tapan’s discussion of US-India cooperation as a way of limiting PRC influence. Discussions of enhanced bilateral alignment are not limited to the tech and economy domains: Nonresident Handa Fellow Thomas Shattuck also discusses the limitations of the Taiwan-Philippines bilateral, despite their shared concerns over PRC behavior, and how they can best navigate their “unofficial” relationship status.
Finally, Ziyi Yan of Princeton University notes how the PRC’s declarations of “A Global Community of Shared Future,” while consistent with declarations since its rapprochement with the US in the mid-1970s, have gradually come to be seen, especially in the US, as a plan to overthrow the global order and supplant Washington. While pointing to ways that Beijing’s rhetoric and actions have fed into this growing suspicion, she advised the US to learn more of how China sees itself, outside of Western-imposed IR frameworks, and also to set is own vision for the global order, rather than reacting to the PRC’s outlook.
A more proactive US vision, one that takes into account how Indo-Pacific and Atlantic perspectives, would benefit both sides of Eurasia.
Rob York
Director for Regional Affairs
Pacific Forum
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Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION
CHINA AND NO FIRST USE: DISTRACT, DENY, DELAY
“BEHIND RUSSIA, THERE IS MORE AND MORE CHINA”– BIPOLARIZATION OF THE WORLD IN PROGRESS IN THE BALTIC SEA
OVERCOMING OBSTACLES TO A STRONGER TAIWAN-PHILIPPINES RELATIONSHIP
US-EAST ASIA SEMICONDUCTOR COOPERATION: ADVANCING SUSTAINABLE PARTNERSHIPS
FROM DEPENDENCY TO RESILIENCE: ASSESSING SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE CONTEXT OF CHINA’S INFLUENCE AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR US-INDIA COLLABORATION
BRIDGING THE GAP: DUTCH AND EU PATHWAYS INTO NORTHEAST ASIA’S SEMICONDUCTOR MINILATERALS
RHETORIC AT THE CROSSROADS: CONFRONTING A “GLOBAL COMMUNITY OF SHARED FUTURE” IN THE CONTEXT OF US-CHINA RELATIONS
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
About the Authors
WILLIAM ALBERQUE is a Senior Adjunct Fellow at the Pacific Forum. He previously served as Director of NATO’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Non-Proliferation Centre and the Director of Strategy, Technology, and Arms Control at the IISS, focusing on nuclear deterrence, outer space security, and risk reduction. He has also been a Senior Fellow at the Henry L. Stimson Center and the James Martin Center. Previously, he served as and worked for the US Government for more than two decades on nuclear security and safeguards, WMD non-proliferation, arms control, CSBMs, SALW, CBRN defense, pandemic response, and nuclear accident response.
SARI ARHO HAVRÉN is currently a Senior Geopolitical Advisor for Business Finland and an Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. She is also a Visiting Researcher at the University of Helsinki, where she obtained her PhD in general history within the field of international relations. Her master’s thesis concentrated on general history, specializing in modern Chinese history, and she holds a minor degree in sinology. Furthermore, she is a certified futurist from the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, California. With 15 years of experience living in China and Hong Kong, she has authored numerous books, articles, and papers on China’s foreign relations, great power competition, and the future of geopolitics. Her recent works have examined EU-China and Sino-Russian relations. Prior to her current roles, she served as an adjunct professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies and as a European-China Policy fellow at MERICS, the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Germany.
THOMAS J. SHATTUCK is a 2024-25 non-resident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum and a Senior Program Manager at the University of Pennsylvania’s Perry World House. He is a 2024-25 non-resident Research Fellow at the Modern War Institute at West Point and a 2025 Fellow at Atomic Anxiety in the New Nuclear Age. His research focuses on cross-Strait relations, Taiwanese and Chinese domestic and foreign affairs, Taiwan’s semiconductor industry, and the U.S. role in the Indo-Pacific. Shattuck is a non-resident Research Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute, a non-resident Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a member of Foreign Policy for America’s NextGen Foreign Policy Initiative, and a part of the Pacific Forum’s Young Leaders Program, through which he participated in the 2022 U.S.-Philippines Next-Generation Leaders in Security Initiative. Email: [email protected]
JOON SUNG LEE was a former policy analyst at Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency (KOTRA) Washington D.C. office and was a Nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow from 2024-25.
OORJA TAPAN is currently a Doctoral Fellow in Diplomacy and Disarmament at the Centre for International Politics, Organisation and Disarmament (CIPOD), School of International Studies (SIS) in Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. She has been awarded the Network for Advanced Study of China (NASC) Fellowship at the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru, India for 2024-25. Her interest areas are Indo-Pacific affairs, QUAD, Sino-India relations, South Asia, U.S.-China rivalry, and the Theory of International Relations. She has previously served as an Assistant Professor at the School of Internal Security, Defense, and Strategic Studies (SISDSS), Rashtriya Raksha University, Gandhinagar- an Institute of National Importance under the Ministry of Home Affairs. She is a member of the Indo-Pacific Circle (IPC) at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research (CSDR), New Delhi as well as a Young Leader at the Pacific Forum, Honolulu, United States.
MARTIJN CORNELISSEN, a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at Pacific Forum, specializes in East Asian security and international cooperation. With dual master’s degrees in Asian Studies and International Relations from Leiden University, he has interned at DKI APCSS and held a role as a policy officer at the Municipality of The Hague. Contact: [email protected].
ZIYI YAN is a second-year undergraduate at Princeton University majoring in History with minors in Humanistic Studies, History and the Practice of Diplomacy, and Creative Writing. Her interests include US-China relations, cultural narratives, and the historicity of IR paradigms. She is also interested in exploring structural violence and criticisms of modernity. At Princeton, Ziyi is an officer of the International Relations Council, as well as Director General of Committees at the Princeton Diplomatic Invitational and Chargé d’Affaires at the Princeton Model UN Conference. In addition to her academic work, Ziyi is a widely-published poet and creative writer.