Executive Summary

In recent years, the geopolitical landscape of East Asia has undergone significant shifts, with the Taiwan Strait  emerging as a pivotal point of great power competition and regional instability. This paper delves into the  intricate dynamics in this evolving scenario, examining the multifaceted implications of Taiwan contingencies  and their ripple effects on the security of the Korean Peninsula and the longstanding US-ROK alliance. This  study highlights the need for Korea to build strategic plans for a Taiwan contingency by examining the  correlation between plausible scenarios and the security challenges of the Korean Peninsula. 

This paper explores the broader implications of a Taiwan contingency within the context of great power rivalry  and international relations. Moreover, it analyzes specific scenarios related to the Korean Peninsula that could  unfold around Taiwan, such as maritime blockades and potential Chinese armed attacks on Taiwanese  territory. It then emphasizes the influence of these scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, revealing a complex  web of economic security, diplomatic, and military challenges. The article thereafter turns its attention to the  US-ROK alliance essential to regional security in East Asia. This analysis examines the strategic ramifications  of the relocation of US Forces Korea (USFK) and the possible engagement of the ROK military to assess the  potential responses by the US-ROK alliance to the Taiwan crisis. It also highlights how crucial it is to  comprehend each of the points of view held by the US and the ROK, underscoring the complex intricacies of  the alliance. 

Finally, the paper proposes strategic policy recommendations to enhance Korea’s role in regional security.  This includes strategies for maritime security, military readiness against conventional threats, and the  strengthening of trilateral relationships with the US and Japan, providing a proactive roadmap for Korea’s  foreign and defense policy.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

THE IMPLICATIONS OF TAIWAN CONTINGENCY

TAIWAN CONTINGENCY SCENARIOS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA

THE US-ROK ALLIANCE IN TAIWAN CONTINGENCY

POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS TO IMPROVE KOREA’S ROLES FOR THE REGIONAL SECURITY

CONCLUSION

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

About the Author

YERIN YOON was a Resident Korea Foundation Fellow at Pacific Forum in 2023. Previously, she served in  the Republic of Navy as a surface warfare officer and worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Korean  National Diplomat Academy as a researcher. She holds a B.A. in international relations and military science  from the Republic of Korea Naval Academy.

Photo: A contingency in the event that China invades Taiwan is emerging as a key focus in Japan’s new defense policy.|REUTERS