pacific forum History of Pacific Forum

Issues & Insights Vol. 22, SR6 – AUKUS A Look Back at The First Analyses

  • Bruno Tertrais

    Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research

  • Ashley Townshend

    Director of Foreign Policy and Defence at the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney

  • Brad Glosserman

    Deputy Director at the Center for Rule-Making Strategies at Tama University and Senior Adviser at Pacific Forum

  • Robert Ayson

    Professor of Strategic Studies at Victoria University of Wellington.

  • Yun Sun

    Senior Fellow and Co-Director of the East Asia Program and Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center

  • Marie Jourdain

    Visiting Fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center

  • Elina Noor

    Director, Political-Security Affairs and Deputy Director, Washington, D.C. Office at the Asia Society Policy Institute

  • Henry Sokolski

    Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center in Arlington, Virginia

  • David Camroux

    Centre for International Studies (CERI) at Sciences Po

  • Artyom Lukin

    Deputy Director for Research at the Oriental Institute – School of Regional and International Studies

  • Fu S. Mei

    Director at the Taiwan Security Analysis Center in Manhasset, New York

  • Manpreet Sethi

    Distinguished Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies in New Delhi

Written By

  • David Santoro President
  • Rob York Director for Regional Affairs

MEDIA QUERIES

Introduction
David Santoro and Rob York

Announced just over a year ago on Sept. 15, 2021, the Australia-United Kingdom-United States (AUKUS) security partnership promised work on two interrelated lines of effort between the three allies. One entailed providing Australia with a conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarine capability. The other involved cooperation on developing and providing joint advanced military capabilities to promote security and stability in the region, including in cyber, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, undersea capabilities, hypersonic and counter-hypersonic systems, electronic warfare, and information sharing.

AUKUS sent shockwaves across the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Some praised the new partnership, explaining that it would tighten the US hub-and-spokes alliance system and stand as a powerful deterrent to China’s new assertiveness in the region. Others¾with the People’s Republic of China in the lead¾were much less enthusiastic, even outright critical, insisting that it would create unnecessary tensions, possibly leading to arms races or crises, and undermine nonproliferation norms and rules. France was also deeply upset because AUKUS immediately led to Australia’s cancellation of a French-Australian submarine deal, without notice.

In the days, weeks, and months that followed the AUKUS announcement, the Pacific Forum published, via its PacNet Commentary series, several preliminary analyses on the trilateral partnership, each reflecting a specific national perspective from throughout the Indo-Pacific and beyond. One year later, and as implementation of the AUKUS partnership remains ongoing, we have compiled these analyses into a Pacific Forum Issues & Insights volume.

It is our hope that these publications will provide a basis for further study and additional recommendations.

Table of Contents

PacNet 41, 09/20/2021. After the shock: France, America, and the Indo-Pacific by Bruno Tertais

PacNet 44, 09/29/2021. How AUKUS advances Australia’s commitment to collective defense by Ashley Townshend

PacNet 46, 10/05/2021. After AUKUS, “present at the creation” in the 21st century by Brad Glosserman

PacNet 48, 10/19/2021. New Zealand and AUKUS: Affected without being included by Robert Ayson

PacNet 50, 10/26/2021. Fold, call, or raise? China’s potential reactions to AUKUS by Yun Sun

PacNet 51, 11/03/2021. What AUKUS means for European security by Marie Jourdain

PacNet 54, 11/22/2021. What AUKUS means for Malaysia’s technological future by Elina Noor

PacNet 57, 12/10/2021. Building on AUKUS to forge a PAX Pacifica by Henry Sokolski

PacNet 58, 12/14/2021. Why the UK was the big winner of AUKUS by David Camroux

PacNet 59, 12/21/2021. “JAUKUS” and the emerging clash of alliances in the Pacific by Artyom Lukin

PacNet 60, 12/28/2021. AUKUS’ short- and long-term implications for Taiwan by Fu Mei

PacNet 05, 01/21/2022. AUKUS’ opportunities and risks for Indi by Manpreet Sethi

PacNet 11, 02/24/2022. Nuclear submarines for our Pacific Allies: When to say yes by Henry Sokolski