Reduced rates of economic growth are likely to be a fact of life in China for the next few years, and slow growth could produce an increase in already high levels of social discontent which could result in political instability. For the next few years, the leadership will attempt to implement the structural reforms necessary to provide a sound framework for sustained future growth while minimizing political unrest. The odds favoring success were judged to be only about even. This suggests a need to reconsider assumptions about China’s economic prospects and to identify indicators of declining political stability.
PacNet #40 – Strategic Trends in China
October 16, 1998