Executive Summary

Southeast Asian states have yet to connect China’s rapid nuclear weapons expansion to their own national security. Two factors account for this. First, regional countries do not anticipate a future in which Beijing will threaten them with nuclear weapons or engage in a nuclear brinkmanship with Washington in Southeast Asia. Given China’s success in achieving territorial and maritime gains without the use of force, and the low likelihood of Beijing using nuclear weapons, Southeast Asian partners would rather focus on security sector capacity-building to increase their ability to withstand low-intensity coercion. Second, regional states generally do not distinguish between and among the Nuclear Weapon States (NWS)—both in terms of capabilities and intentions. They view the presence and potential use of nuclear weapons by any state as threats to regional and global security and prefer that all NWS, including the United States, demonstrate a commitment toward nuclear risk reduction and disarmament.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

KEY FINDINGS & RECOMMENDATIONS

TECHNICAL REPORT

• FINDINGS SUMMARY
• METHODOLOGY
• ANALYSIS
• US-CHINA NUCLEAR COMPETITION: VIEWS FROM SOUTHEAST ASIA
• CHINA’S MISSILE DEVELOPMENT AND NUCLAER WEAPONS EXPANSION: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TAIWAN
• INCREASINGLY FORMIDABLE CHINESE A2/AD CAPABILITIES
• MAKING SENSE OF THE SOUTHEAST ASIA NUCLEAR WEAPON-FREE NUCLEAR ZONE TREATY AND OTHER REGIONAL WMD NORMS
• OTHER NATIONAL AND REGIONAL WMD CONCERNS
• SCENARIO-BASED EXERCISE: SOUTHEAST ASIA AND THE BLOCKADE OF TAIWAN

APPENDIX 1: SURVEY RESULTS – POLICY ELITES’ PERSPECTIVES ON NUCLAER SECURITY IN SOUTHEAST ASIA

APPENDIX 2: THREE CATEGORIES OF CHINA’S ANTI-ACCESS/AREA-DENIAL (A2/AD) CAPABILITIES

APPENDIX 3: SCENARIO-BASED EXERCISE — THE BLOCKADE OF TAIWAN

ABOUT THE PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATORS

About the Principal Investigators

Dr. Jeffrey Ordaniel is non-resident Adjunct Senior Fellow and Director for Maritime Security at the Pacific Forum. Concurrently, he is also Associate Professor of International Security Studies at Tokyo International University (TIU) in Japan. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and specializes in the study of offshore territorial and maritime entitlement disputes in Asia. His teaching and research revolve around maritime security and ocean governance, ASEAN regionalism, and broadly, U.S. alliances and engagements in the Indo-Pacific. From 2016 to 2019, he was based in Honolulu and was the holder of the endowed Admiral Joe Vasey Fellowship at the Pacific Forum. Dr. Ordaniel convenes the annual track 1.5 South China Sea Dialogue. His current research on maritime security in Asia is funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), 2020-2024.

Carl Baker is Executive Director at Pacific Forum in Honolulu, Hawaii. He serves as coeditor of Comparative Connections. He is a member of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific (CSCAP) and engaged in promoting security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region as a participant in several CSCAP Study Groups. Current focus areas include preventive diplomacy, multilateral security architecture, nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and nuclear security. Previously, he was on the faculty at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies and an adjunct professor at Hawaii Pacific University. Publications include articles and book chapters on U.S. alliances and political developments in South Korea and the Philippines. A retired U.S. Air Force officer, he has extensive experience in Korea, having served as an international political-military affairs officer for the UN Military Armistice Commission and as a political and economic intelligence analyst for U.S. Forces Korea. He has also lived for extended periods and served in a variety of military staff assignments in Japan, the Philippines, and Guam.

Photo: The flags of Southeast Asian nations||  Credit: Observer Research Foundation