Executive Summary

The Mekong subregion is experiencing heightened geopolitical competition between the US and China, representing a clash between the international rules-based order and a China-led order. While the US and its allies advocate for the rules-based order, China’s intentions for its own order in the region are debated. China’s increased presence and influence in the Mekong subregion, particularly through upstream control of the Mekong water, reflect its pursuit of this order. In response, the US and its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, have strengthened cooperation with one another to promote a rules-based system. Despite existing coordination, there is potential for further collaboration to enhance their role in mainland Southeast Asia.

Stability and prosperity in the Mekong subregion are being challenged. Weakening international norms in governing transboundary waters threaten downstream countries’ security and livelihoods, exacerbated by climate change-induced droughts. China’s growing engagement in the region aims to establish its sphere of influence, primarily through economic development projects like dams and railways, raising concerns over environmental impacts and expanding Chinese influence. Additionally, non-traditional security threats such as the COVID-19 pandemic, cyber security, and human trafficking further complicate the region’s situation.

The engagement of the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion is multifaceted, driven by various interests but united in countering China’s growing influence. The US, through initiatives like the Lower Mekong Initiative (LMI) and later the Mekong-US Partnership, seeks to maintain its relevance and preeminence in the region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia also engage with the subregion, for economic interests and to counterbalance China. Japan, for instance, aims to establish production bases and balance China’s influence through high-standard infrastructure projects. South Korea focuses on economic development and diversification of trade amid US-China tensions, while Australia prioritizes promoting a rules-based order and addressing non-traditional security threats. Despite differences in approach, the US and its allies collaborate through platforms like the Friends of the Mekong and initiatives such as the Trilateral Partnership for Infrastructure Investment in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at countering China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, challenges remain in realizing these initiatives, particularly in engaging the private sector and ensuring concrete outcomes amidst competing interests and complex negotiations.

Recommendations for enhancing cooperation between the US and its allies in the Mekong subregion include strengthening international norms and rules, expanding economic infrastructure projects, focusing on non-traditional security issues, and fostering track 1.5 and track 2 diplomacy to promote mutual understanding and collaboration among all stakeholders, including governments, academia, businesses, and civil society organizations. These efforts, facilitated by the US and its allies, can contribute to a more stable and prosperous Mekong subregion.

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Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MEKONG SUBREGION

THE ENGAGEMENT OF THE US AND ITS ALLIES IN THE MEKONG SUBREGION

RECOMMENDATIONS TO ENHANCE THE COOPERATION BETWEEN THE US AND ITS ALLIES IN THE MEKONG SUBREGION

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

About the Author

Sach Nguyen is a research fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, and former Resident Lloyd and Lilian Vasey Fellow at Pacific Forum. He was a contact point for Vietnam’s participation in several track II diplomacy networks in the Asia Pacific, including the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP), the network of ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ASEAN ISIS), and others. He gained his bachelor’s degree in international relations from the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam in 2010 and his master’s degree in public policy from the Australian National University in 2016. He works and writes on issues related to Vietnam’s foreign policy, non-traditional security issues, and the Mekong subregion.