ADVANCING A RULES-BASED MARITIME ORDER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA: OUTCOME DOCUMENT FROM THE MANILA DIALOGUE ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 2024

Introduction

At the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. of the Philippines underscored the importance of resolving maritime differences in the South China Sea on the basis of international law and respecting the legitimate interests and legally settled rights of all parties.

The Philippine President made a strong appeal to the international community to take a stand against attempts to subvert the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — through excessive claims that contravene its status as the constitution of the oceans, through wanton violations of its provisions, and through attempts to deny the legitimacy of its process and procedures.

To help advance the region’s shared interests in a free, open, secure, and rules-based maritime order, The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea was convened on November 6-8, 2024. The dialogue gathered some of the most influential foreign policy experts, thought leaders, and academics from throughout Southeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific.

Delegates debated issues, pitched innovative ideas, and offered recommendations to ensure that the rule of law, not coercion and the use of force, prevails in resolving disputes, thus, safeguarding regional peace and stability.

The Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, convened with support from government partners, local and international research organizations, academic institutions, and private foundations, is envisioned to be an annual Track 1.5 process focusing on promoting adherence to international law and identifying sound, pragmatic, and actionable policy prescriptions for littoral states surrounding the South China Sea, as well as other interested state and non-state actors.

The inaugural dialogue invited over 100 participants from think tanks, academic, public policy, military and industry, from over 20 countries around the world. Over 100 personnel from media organizations worldwide came to cover the event.

Table of Contents

Technical Report

Introduction

Methodology

Key Findings

Summary of Discussions

• The Coast Guard as Guardians of the Rule of Law at Sea
• The Rule of Law in the South China Sea – Perspectives from Claimant States
• The Rule of Law in the South China Sea: Should the World Care?
• The Stakes of the International Community
• Recent Threats to the Rule of Law in the South China Sea, 2023-2024
• Transparency and Countering Malign Influence Operations
• Partnerships for a More Rules-based South China Sea – Roles of External Partners
• Key Takeaways, Policy Recommendations and Next Steps

About the Lead Convenors

Annex 1: 2024 Agenda

About the Authors

Jeffrey ORDANIEL is non-resident Adjunct Senior Fellow and Director of Maritime Programs at the Pacific Forum. Concurrently, he is also Assistant Professor of International Security Studies at Tokyo International University (TIU) in Japan. He holds a Ph.D. in International Relations and specializes in the study of offshore territorial and maritime entitlement disputes in Asia. His teaching and research revolve around maritime security and ocean governance, ASEAN regionalism, and broadly, US alliances and engagements in the Indo-Pacific. From 2016 to 2019, he was based in Honolulu and was the holder of the endowed Admiral Joe Vasey Fellowship at the Pacific Forum.

Since 2019, Dr. Ordaniel has been convening the Indo-Pacific Maritime Security Expert Working Group, an informal network of select experts and scholars from Japan, Southeast Asia, Australia and North America, with the aim of generating sound, pragmatic and actionable policy prescriptions for the region. His current research on maritime security in Asia is funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS), 2020-2022. He is author of the forthcoming Routledge book, Coping with ‘China Threat’⁠—The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in the South China Sea, scheduled for release in early 2021.

CG Commodore Jay Tristan TARRIELA, Spokesperson, Philippine Coast Guard , holds the distinction of being the youngest ever to be promoted to a flag or star rank in the Philippines, and to this day, he remains the youngest general in the entire uniformed service. Currently serving as the PCG Spokesperson on the West Philippine Sea and as the Special Staff of the Commandant on Issues concerning the West Philippine Sea, he has become the face of the Philippines’ transparency strategy in countering China’s aggressive actions. His dedication to transparency has garnered international support, with the global community standing alongside the Philippines in condemning China’s blatant violation of international law.

With an extensive education background, CG Commodore Jay Tristan Tarriela’s expertise has been shaped by his Ph.D. studies at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo as a Japan International Cooperation Agency ASEAN Public Policy Leadership scholar. He has also undergone rigorous military and coast guard training, both locally and abroad. Additionally, he holds a graduate degree from the Philippine Merchant Marine Academy Graduate School and a Master of Policy Studies from GRIPS and the Japan Coast Guard Academy.