Background

In the spring of 2025, the Pacific Forum conducted a workshop on “Southeast Asian Views on Rising US-China Strategic Competition and Implications for Strategic Stability, Deterrence, and Nonproliferation” in Bangkok, Thailand. Approximately 20 scholars and officials from Southeast Asia and the West attended, all in their private capacity.

The off-the-record discussions provided an opportunity to discuss, in regular meeting sessions, the following topics: the strategic landscape in the Indo-Pacific, especially in Southeast Asia; China’s strategic behavior and its military – nuclear – modernization; the US and allied response so far; and the Southeast Asian response, as of now. The workshop also included a two-move scenario-based exercise featuring an escalating crisis and contingency over Taiwan.

This report lists all key findings and recommendations from the workshop.

Key findings and recommendations from presentations and discussions in regular meeting sessions

Often deemed to be “the new center of gravity” in the era of US-China strategic competition, Southeast Asia nonetheless has not been sufficiently in focus in the West. Southeast Asian views of, and actions to address, the competition, especially as it related to strategic stability, deterrence, and nonproliferation, remain largely understudied, and thus too often unknown.

So, just as Western countries should make every effort to re-learn quickly much of the Cold War’s key terms, concepts, and practices to navigate this new era effectively, they should also devote considerably more attention to, and learn about, ongoing dynamics in Southeast Asia, because this subregion is, more than any other, on the front lines of US-China strategic competition.

Southeast Asians are generally clear-eyed about the new security environment, its key features, and the current and looming dynamics. They see increased potential for crises, conflicts, and even confrontations between the United States and China, as the competition continues to heat up. In addition to expressing concerns about the possibility of escalating accidents or incidents over the South China Sea, Taiwan, or the Korean Peninsula (especially the first two, because the implications for them would be far-reaching), they worry about the impact of new and emerging technologies, which, as one participant noted, “will likely enhance not just the unpredictability of wars, but also their lethality and reach.”

Southeast Asians also see the looming emergence of nuclear power in the region as a potential source of instability. So, while committed to investing in small modular reactors to enhance their energy security and help their transition to a greener economy, many Southeast Asian countries are concerned by the geopolitical challenges that nuclear power development could pose, and especially what could happen in the event of regional crises or contingencies. Some said that they want to avoid at all costs a situation similar to the one that has been taking place over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.

David Santoro

President and CEO

Pacific Forum

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Table of Contents

BACKGROUND

WHAT ARE THE LESSONS OF ASEAN’S EXPERIENCE DURING THE COLD WAR?

CONTRASTING SOUTHEAST ASIAN VIEWS ON US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION

PRECARIOUS PEACE: US-CHINA STRATEGIC COMPETITION AND THE FUTURE OF SOUTHEAST ASIA

US PARTNERSHIP IN SOUTHEAST ASIA: THE DEPLOYMENT OF CIVILIAN NUCLEAR ENERGY FOR STRATEGIC STABILITY

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

About the Authors

RENATO CRUZ DE CASTRO is a distinguished professor at the Department of International Studies, De La Salle University, Manila, and holds the Dr. Aurelio Calderon Chair in Philippines–American Relations. Professor De Castro has written over 100 articles on international relations and security that have been published in several scholarly journals and edited works in the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Canada, Malaysia, France, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Australia, and the United States. In 2019, the Board of
Trustees of the Philippine Political Science Association (PPSA) announced that Professor De Castro is the most prolific Filipino Political Scientist in terms of scholarly publication and one of the top 10 Filipino Political Scientists in terms of several citations. The 2022 AD Scientific Index ranked him 92nd among the top 100 scientists in the Philippines and one of the top 50 Social Scientists in the country. AD Scientific Index also ranked him as the number one Filipino Political Scientist in publications and citations. On December 20, 2024, the AFP Chief–of–Staff, Lt. General Romeo Brawner Jr. awarded Professor De Castro with the Sandigan AFP Stakeholder Award for his “extensive research, public education initiatives, and active involvement in institutions has significantly played a fundamental role in advancing the knowledge of regional security dynamics and its implications for Philippine sovereignty and regional security.” He earned his Ph.D. from the Government and International Studies Department of the University of South Carolina as a Fulbright Scholar in 2001. He obtained his B.A. and two master’s degrees from the University of the Philippines.

DR. NGO DI LAN is a researcher at the Institute for Foreign Policy and Strategic Studies, Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam. He earned his PhD from Brandeis University, specializing in state responses to territorial fait accompli. Dr. Ngo’s current research focus lies in the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and international relations, particularly the implications of AI for international security and its strategic integration into national security policy planning.

RISTIAN ATRIANDI SUPRIYANTO (Andi/Ristian) is a lecturer with the Department of International Relations and researcher at the ASEAN Study Center, FISIP, Universitas Indonesia (UI). He is also a research fellow with the Indonesia Sinology Forum (FSI), Jakarta, and PhD scholar at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. Ristian obtained a Master of Science in Strategic Studies from the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (RSIS–NTU) in Singapore and a Bachelor of Social
Science in International Relations from UI. Before joining UI, he worked for the Maritime Security Programme at RSIS–NTU. Andi comments and writes numerous works on sea power, maritime security, strategic studies, and international relations. His works include “Naval Modernisation in Southeast Asia: Problems and Prospects for Small and Medium Navies” (Palgrave, 2018) with Geoffrey Till. Submitted in March 2025, Ristian’s doctoral thesis is titled “Competing over America in the Cold War: Australia–Indonesia Relations, 1945–1978.”

KARLA MAE G. PABELIÑA is an Associate Fellow of the Asia–Pacific Leadership Network. She is a recipient of the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs Women Scholarship for Peace (Global South: Asia– Pacific), as well as the 2017 United Nations Fellowships on Disarmament. She has been actively involved in Track II dialogues on Nonproliferation and Disarmament in the Asia–Pacific through the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia–Pacific.

ALVIN CHEW is Senior Fellow of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU). His research covers the broad spectrum of civilian application of nuclear energy as well as non–proliferation. Alvin teaches the module Strategic Industries and Technology Planning at RSIS.