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PacNet #1 – What Hu Jintao Should Expect: Predictions about Obama Administration Policy toward Taiwan

Taiwan remains one of the most sensitive and divisive issues between the United States and China.  What should Chinese President Hu Jintao expect from President Obama on this critically important issue?  Until the new president is sworn in and key personnel are confirmed, the new administration’s policy will remain uncertain. Moreover, the overall framework as well as detailed policies will emerge gradually; a comprehensive policy statement on Taiwan is unlikely to be issued.  Nevertheless, it may be useful to make some predictions.  Below are eight policy objectives that are likely to be pursued by the Obama administration.  They represent the musings of an independent scholar and interested observer with no special inside knowledge or access to the president-elect.