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PacNet #43 – Preempting a crisis on the Korean Peninsula: lessons from Ukraine

Moscow’s recent actions in Crimea will affect world politics for years. The aftershocks will be felt not just in Europe but in Asia as well. Contemplating Russia’s annexation of Crimea, experts have lamented the impact on international law, the perceived weakness of the US and its allies, and the lessons that countries like China may learn regarding the cost of unilateral action. In the Northeast Asian context, one problem that could be analogous to the Ukrainian crisis would be the sudden and complete collapse of the DPRK regime and military intervention by China. This would cause such a breakdown of political, military, economic and/or social fabric that a mere change of government would not fix the situation.