Perhaps one thing everyone can agree on about Trump 2.0 is that his top priority is to prevent China from surpassing the United States as the world’s leading power. Just one month into his second term, we are already seeing how the US-China relations might unfold in the next few years. The rivalry between these two is not just about trade wars or economic dominance. It is also about the global narratives, the stories each country tells about their roles in the world. Both Washington and Beijing have already set the stage for what’s ahead. In this new geopolitical reality, who defines the rules will matter just as much as military or economic power.
Trump’s First Month: An America Turning Inward?
It is now clear that “America First” is more than just a slogan but a policy that’s driving significant decisions. The U.S. under Trump 2.0 seems less interested in leading the world as it has for decades. Instead, it is shifting focus inward: pulling out of The Paris Agreement, cutting funding to global organizations like the WHO and USAID, and A prime example is that the U.S. has imposed tariffs on a wide range of imports, and cutting funds for global development, prioritizing economic self-interest over global cooperation. The U.S. is retreating, no longer leading on global issues with the same resources it once did.
But here’s the twist: China is stepping forward, as the U.S. steps back. The vacuum left by America’s waning interest in global leadership has not gone unnoticed, and China seems ready to seize the moment. Where the US once dominated, China is now carving out its own space, increasingly pushing for multilateralism and cooperation. From BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has been positioning itself to assert its influence on the global stage—not to become a hegemon or overturn the existing order, but rather to ensure it has a voice in shaping the rules and conversations that matter for its interests. However, this raises a big question: Is China ready to lead? Not just in words but with action.
Regardless of whether China is willing or able to match the US’s global commitment, one thing is clear: the US is shifting its traditional approach. A significant moment came when Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference highlighted that the greatest threat to Europe was not Russia and China, but “from within”—the continent’s failure to uphold fundamental freedom and manage its migration policies. This stark critique perhaps constitutes a new dynamic in the transatlantic alliance and a sharp rebuke to Europe’s struggles, calling for more responsibilities from within, and warning that Europe should not solely rely on American protection for its own security.
China’s Strategic Play: Resilience in the Long Game
China is seizing a moment to present itself as a trusted partner but with strategic messages. When State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at the Munich Conference this year, his words were far from mere diplomatic pleasantries. Wang said China would “play along to the end” with the U.S., it is perhaps a calculated message responding to the US-China strategic competition. This statement can be interpreted in a few ways. First, it signals that China is prepared to continue responding to the trade war initiated by Trump, as evidenced by its recent 15% tariff on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas imports, as well as export controls on 25 rare earth metals, some of which are crucial for electronics and military equipment. Second, China is also ready for the long haul, even if that means enduring potential conflicts, whether over the Taiwan Strait or in the South China Sea.
Wang also frames China as a ‘steadfast constructive force’ in an increasingly uncertain world—especially as the US approach becomes more unpredictable. This shift is likely to earn China more trust from Global South countries, particularly those frustrated by the West’s hegemonic tendencies toward the weaker nations. For instance, South Africa has voiced disappointment over the cutting of USAID to the region. The country is the largest global recipient of President’s Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (PEPFAR) funds, and it has been hit hard by the suspension of USAID. There is a suggestion that it may consider withholding, such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, and graphite, to the US. These are widely used for batteries for electric vehicles. A report last year by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) suggested that if the US seeks to diversify from China for these vital resources, Africa could play a critical role in strengthening US critical minerals supply chain security.
Now the big picture here is that China isn’t just responding to the U.S.; it is defining the terms of engagement on its own. At the Munich Conference, the key message from China was “equal treatment, respect for international law, multilateralism, and openness and mutual benefits”. While the U.S. contends with domestic challenges and reduces its global commitment, China is looking past short-term conflicts, with its long-term role in shaping global governance.
The Larger Implications: Who Gets to Shape the Future?
What’s unfolding is more than just a clash of powers. It is the beginning of a new global narrative, where China is positioning itself as the leader of a multipolar world. Its vision revolves around cooperation, stability, and inclusive growth. Even though there have been some doubts about China’s proposed alternative order, the existing hegemonic structure has not sufficiently satisfied the developing world either.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is struggling to maintain its old narrative of unipolar dominance at a time when the world is increasingly looking for something different. The Trump administration’s retreat from international institutions and self-focused policies are creating a power vacuum. While many global powers, especially in the Global South, have traditionally been wary of becoming too reliant on China, they are now forced to navigate this new order, weighing self-sufficiency against dependence on Chinese resources, all at the expense of US leadership.
But this is not just about the U.S.-China rivalry. It’s also about how smaller nations are reacting to these two giants. Countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America are increasingly inclined to diversify their partnerships, no longer relying solely on the U.S. as the primary guarantor of global stability. China’s economic statecraft and its role in global trade are reshaping alliances, forcing nations to ask whether they can afford to ignore China’s economic clout or the U.S.’s shrinking global presence.
In this changing landscape, the world is asking: Who gets to shape the future of global governance? Will it be a redefined U.S. leadership focused on nationalism and self-interest, or will it be a China-led future, driven by mutual respect, cooperation, and shared responsibility, even if action sometimes falls short of the rhetoric? For now, countries are looking to both powers—now just for security or economic opportunity—but to see who can offer a viable vision for a stable, interconnected future.
Chhay LIM is currently a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies of the Institute for International Studies and Public Policy, Royal University of Phnom Penh. He is also a Japanese Government MEXT scholar at the Graduate School of International Relations, Ritsumeikan University. Chhay won the “Best Research Paper” award at the 21st Asia-Pacific Conference at Ritsumeikan Asia-Pacific University, Japan. Email: [email protected]
Illustration: The US and China engage in a geostrategic tug-of-war. Credit: Wenjin Chen/Getty Images
