Introduction

The return of force as an instrument of statecraft, the growing fragmentation of global interdependence, and the changed and changing role of the United States in the world are driving increasingly capable countries to strengthen their strategic autonomy. Doing so is challenging, however, because it is often constrained by costs, the depth of global interdependence, and power asymmetries. Still, even as it will continue to be dominated by the United States and China, the next international order will include a rising number of relatively powerful countries—middle powers—that can influence and shape that order. Once it has materialized fully, that new international order will thus be more regionalized and pluralistic and less hierarchical and universalist than the current order. The result will be a shift from order enforcement by one or two major power(s) to order management by major and middle powers. That new world will present benefits, costs, and risks to the United States. If it adapts wisely its approach to this new world, Washington will maintain the upper hand.

David Santoro

President and CEO

Pacific Forum

Table of Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

INTRODUCTION

THE AUTONOMOUS APPEAL

GOING STRATEGICALLY AUTONOMOUS

US OPTIONS IN THE EMERGING AUTONOMY-CENTERED WORLD

THE PATH FORWARD

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

About the Author

DAVID SANTORO is the President and CEO of the Pacific Forum. He specializes in strategic and security issues with a regional focus on both Asia and Europe. Dr Santoro’s current interests focus on great-power dynamics, US alliances, and deterrence, particularly the role of China in an era of nuclear multipolarity. In 2021, Lynne Rienner published his volume on U.S.-China Nuclear Relations – The Impact of Strategic Triangles. Dr Santoro also leads several of the Forum’s track-1.5 and track-2 strategic dialogues. Before joining Pacific Forum, Santoro worked on similar issues in France, Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. In the spring of 2010, Dr Santoro was also a visiting fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation and, in 2010-2011, he was a Stanton nuclear security fellow at the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London.