Introduction

Pacific Forum has for decades relied on a combination of experienced senior analysts and up-and-coming experts to provide analysis that is both seasoned and fresh. This volume is no exception, as our Senior Adjunct Fellow Paul Goldstein leads off by analyzing the impact of the major foreign policy conflagration of 2026 (so far)—the US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has already impacted the world economy and whose ripple effects may permanently alter the US-China rivalry. From there, economist Albertus Siagian discusses the effects of something many of Asia’s major players can relate to—national division—and its impact on living standards in the largest island in the Pacific: New Guinea.

Nonresident James A. Kelly Fellows Jinwon Lee and Kinnidie White share their analysis on, respectively, the evolution of US-ROK alliance dynamics and the scope of North Korean information operations. Lastly, participants in Pacific Forum’s internships program – Noémie Lepetit, Anaïs Matte, and Jimin Jeong—contribute emerging policy research on the topics of nuclear weapon-free treaties, NATO’s evolving relationship with Indo-Pacific partners, and the impact of labor migration.

Together, they demonstrate our commitment to comprehensive security analysis for the Indo-Pacific, making use of both the senior and rising analysts in our expansive network.

Rob York

Director for Regional Affairs

Pacific Forum International

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Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION

THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE GLOBAL POWER REBALANCE

THE FORGOTTEN NEW GUINEA PARTITION: REVISITED FROM THE WELFARE PERSPECTIVE

EVOLVING ALLIANCE PATHS: THE US-ROK ALLIANCE AND NEGOTIATION OF ALLIE’S MILITARY COMMITMENTS ON THE PENINSULA

NORTH KOREAN INFORMATION OPERATIONS: IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY

THE BANGKOK TREATY IN THE INDO-PACIFIC: CREDIBILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS IN THE CONTEXT OF NUCLEAR DETERRENCE AND MODERNIZATION

WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR NATO INDO-PACIFIC RELATIONS?

RETHINKING LABOR MIGRATION GOVERNANCE: EVIDENCE FROM KOREA’S EMPLOYMENT PERMIT SYSTEM

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

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About the Authors

PAUL GOLDSTEIN is Senior Adjunct Fellow at Pacific Forum and the Founder, President, and Chief Executive Officer of PTB Global Advisors (PTBGA), a strategic consultancy established in 2000. With over 45 years of experience, he specializes in international affairs, geopolitical strategy, U.S. national security, and economic intelligence. He began his career as a journalist in Europe with the Executive Intelligence Review (1974–1979), and later served as a civilian operator in “Operation Bluelight,” the US government’s first anti-terrorism initiative, working alongside the 5th Special Forces Group. Since 1986, Goldstein has worked as a political and economic intelligence consultant, advising the US intelligence community, the Japanese government, and major corporations.

ALBERTUS SIAGIAN is an economist who focuses on economic development, including its history, political economy, geographical, and environmental aspects, in Indonesia. He obtained his MSc from the Department of Geography of the London School of Economics and holds an expert certification in renewable energy finance from the Frankfurt School of Finance. He can be reached at [email protected].

JINWON LEE ([email protected]) is an assistant professor at Waseda University in Japan. She received her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. She served as a professional researcher at the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea and as a research associate at the Korea Institute for National Unification. Her research interests include alliance politics, nuclear weapons, and Indo-Pacific security.

KINNIDIE WHITE (Captain) serves as an Information Operations Planner at Camp Humphreys, Republic of Korea, where she integrates information- related capabilities across multiple domains to shape the local operating environment. Her first assignment at the Joint Security Area with the United Nations Command Joint Security Battalion provided her with firsthand exposure to the complexities of inter-Korean relations at one of the world’s most sensitive geopolitical hotspots. In 2025-2026 she was a Nonresident James A. Kelly Korea Fellow with Pacific Forum.

NOÉMIE LEPETIT is a student in the Master’s program in Diplomacy and Strategic Negotiations at Paris-Saclay Universit. She is currently a research intern at the Pacific Forum.

ANAIS MATTE holds a Bachelor’s degree in Law from France. Following her undergraduate studies, she took a gap year to broaden her international experience and achieve professional fluency in English. As part of this endeavor, she completed an internship at Pacific Forum in Hawai‘i, where she authored her first publication on international security issues. In the fall, she will begin a Master’s degree in International Security and Defence. She aspires to build a career within international organizations, particularly NATO, contributing to international peace and security. Coming from a European background, her research on strengthening engagement between NATO and the Indo-Pacific provided an opportunity to broaden her perspective beyond the traditional Euro-Atlantic framework. This experience has been especially valuable in light of her long-term professional ambitions and the evolving international environment, which increasingly requires a global approach to addressing contemporary security challenges.

JIMIN JEONG is a recent graduate of Pomona College in California. In summer 2025 she was a research intern at Pacific Forum.